| 1. | The monte carlo simulation method is an improvement over the scenario analysis method . it compensates the deficiencies in scenario analysis and is able to retrieve more insights than we are able to get otherwise . in this paper , we implemented the monte carlo simulation method to analyze the reserves Montecarlo模拟方法是对传统方法,特别是情景分析方法的改进,它弥补了情景分析方法在模拟数量上的不足,覆盖了足够多的情景假设;同时通过对模拟样本进行统计,获取了传统情景方法下无法获得的信息,使分析更具有参考性和实用性。 |